The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades.
On Wall Street and in Washington, optimism may be building that the Federal Reserve is poised to steer the economy toward a soft landing.
But for 212 straight trading days, no matter what the indicators have said, the Treasury market has delivered what is widely understood as a starkly different message: The economy is veering toward a contraction, since 10-year yields have held below 3-month ones.
Such an inversion telegraphed the last eight recessions. And on Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records begin in 1962.
The apparent disconnect between the market’s warning and the surprisingly resilient economy shows how much uncertainty has persisted since the Fed started its aggressive rate hikes in March 2022.
Ye Xie | Yahoo Finance