The good news for traders: A U.S. recession is almost fully priced into the stock market.
The bad news: It's not 100% priced in, if history is any guide.
With the S&P 500 down about 19% from its Jan. 3 peak to 3,901, the market is effectively pricing in a 60% to 75% chance of a recession, according to new analysis from Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner.
Using the historical average and median decline around recessions going back to 1948, Lerner estimated that the S&P 500 has another 7% to 13% downside potential from current levels.
Brian Sozzi | Yahoo Finance